In the spring of 2012 Baseball-Reference.com changed their Wins Above Replacement formula, which for 99% of the world was a complete non-event, but for some of us forced a drastic re-assessment of our life priorities and value systems. For me personally it complicated my spreadsheet of every significant baseball player since 1900. But, working on such a spreadsheet is half the fun, and it needed some tweaking anyway, so I was glad for the excuse to re-hash all that hard work. As a result I’ve been working my way up from 1900 to the present day, rating players as they retire and creating my very own version of a Hall of Fame. I thought I’d spare everyone the first 104 years of the project and limit myself to commenting on the latter years (since my memories of the 1949 season are kind of hazy these days). So I thought I’d begin with the 2004 season, because why not? It was a fun season, and I think most of us can recall the main actors at the time.
Before we begin some notes on the “project”. Players are eligible for Hall of Fame votes immediately upon retiring, but the most any one player can get in a year is 20 votes (with an even 100 necessary for induction). So in effect the mandatory 5 year waiting period is still in play. The main difference is votes are on a scale. Here’s a table which hopefully makes the process clear.
% Rank of Players at a given position all-time Vote Points
Top 1% 20
Top 5% 14
Top 10% 7
Top 15% 1
Fill in the gaps as needed (for instance if you’re in the top 6% of 3B all-time with 5000 plate appearances you get 13 votes). The result is far fewer “first-ballot” Hall of Famers. You only make it in 5 years after retirement if you are literally the best player of all-time at your position. The other wrinkle is that you never get pushed off the ballot. Some guys have hung around for almost a hundred years waiting for a few more LFers to retire to push them into a higher vote bracket. Anyway, enough of the paper-work (unless you want to get into the actual formula for the rankings…)
On to the 2004 season!
Of course, any discussion of 2004 is going to have to focus primarily on the ALCS, which was one for the ages. In a sense that’s the reason I chose to start with this year. 2004 was a bit of a turning point for me as a fan, and to explain why I think I’m going to have to get a mite pretentious for a bit here. I’ve been thinking about it lately, my interest in the Red Sox-Yankees battles of 2003-2004 and my interest in my own team, the Toronto Blue Jays. One is what I’m calling “narrative fandom” and the other is…well for lack of a better word, just plain old “fandom”. ESPN and Fox (and all sports media really) are in the business of story-telling. In their hands a sporting event is a grand narrative – the characters have back-story, the plot hinges on certain key events, and everything is imbued with a sense of meaning. Now so far I’m presenting this as something Fox is manipulating in an attempt to sell ad-space, but the reason it works so well is that narratives are entertaining. Sure, a come-back from 3-0 in a seven game series would be thrilling no matter who was playing, but the fact that it was the Red Sox and Yankees with their history made it more so. My interest in the NFL has been largely dictated by narrative fandom. When I knew most of the important players in the league and their histories I watched quite a lot of football. But now I barely know any of the people I’m watching on the field and so my interest is noticeably less.
I don’t mean to be knocking narrative fandom. The 2003 and 2004 ALCSes were probably the most I’ve been enthralled by baseball since 1993 (barring perhaps the Canada-USA 2006 WBC game). There are some great narratives going on right now…the Rangers and Nationals are on some interesting ones, especially engaging because while you’re in a narrative you don’t know how it will end. But the thing about narratives is that they’re inherently teleological – they most definitely are heading towards a conclusion of some kind. And for me the 2004 ALCS was the conclusion of the Red Sox-Yankees narrative. It was a great story, I still remember most of the heroes with fondness (with the exception of Curt Schilling), but for me the Red Sox are no longer a living story. I use “for me” here because narratives are constructions of the observer. For some the Red Sox narrative is still as enthralling as ever, which leads me to the other form of fandom I mentioned. My love for the Blue Jays isn’t based on a narrative structure (probably a good thing too as the last 20 years make for a fairly depressing story). This kind of fandom is more like life. There’s no structure, or meaning. Things happen…at times they appear to be building towards some kind of glory, at times you’re stuck in the mire of aimless mediocrity, and sometimes great moments intrude upon you unannounced. The great dramatic events may inspire closer attention, but just because you’re not always keenly aware of life doesn’t mean you’re not always living it.
The season itself seemed to confirm the narrative conclusion of the 2004 ALCS. The World Series should have been a great one. Boston coming off their emotional victory against the Yankees to face one of the power houses of the decade, the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis was one of the better teams in the aughts and 2004 was most likely their best team. They had three Hall of Fame worthy players (Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds) all playing at their peak and a solid pitching staff. But they appeared to have received the memo than the ALCS was the main story of the year and laid down submissively for the Red Sox in four straight games.
In keeping with the emphasis on the tension between the minutiae of everyday life and the grand operatic narratives of life sport can symbolize, I like to take a moment to recall the players, both great and small, who hung up their cleats in 2004. Or more accurately, in 2003, “retirement” in this case happens whenever a player plays no professional baseball in a given year. Since the most memorable players and the best players are not always the same thing, I give you the class of 2004, reverse order ranked by career value. Players are listed with career stats and runs above/below average on the far right according to baseball-reference. I hesitated to include the ranking numbers as they are a bit arbitrary, but for the sake of clarity it’s roughly on a scale of 1-100.
0-20 – marginal player
20-35 – solid starter for a few years
34-50 – minor (or briefly) star player
50-70 – star
70-80 – borderline Hall of Fame
80+ Hall of Famer
Ron Coomer – First Base 3.2
1995-2003 3238 PA, .274/.313/.421, 827 H, 92 HR
1 All-Star Game +5
Minnesota seems to spit these guys out at will. Michael Cuddyer is the latest and most successful version of the “Generic Twin White Guy” franchise. Coomer was one of the original prototypes, which focused more on gee-whiz country charm than baseball talent. It was impossible to dislike him though. While improvements have been made to the design, they’ve lost some of the original soul. Sort of a John Kruk-type personality I always thought. He was among a core group that made the late 90s Twins such lovable losers (and inspired good-will that transferred over to the very good Twin teams of 2001-2010).
Joe Girardi – Catcher 9.9
1989-2003 4535 PA, .267/.315/.350, 1100 H, 36 HR, 44 SB
1 All-Star Game 32 CS%, +4
A prototypical back-up catcher who, for some reason, was given several starting gigs. Oddly enough one of those undeserved jobs was as the Yankees catcher during their remarkable late-90s run. It took until 1998 for Jorge Posada to finally force his way into catching duties. In fact, Girardi was even worse in the playoffs where he batted .184 in his career. Girardi was a competent catcher who didn’t hit much at all. He did ride a hot start in 2000 into an All-Star game, but by the end of the year he had put together a season that does little to stand out from all the other terrible ones.
[Editor’s note: the tone of this entry may be a product of Girardi’s current job]
Al Martin – Leftfield 11.4
1992-2003 4688 PA, .276/.339/.444, 1172 H, 132 HR, 173 SB
-50
Another guy who had a rather lengthy career purely because…well, somebody had to fill out the roster for the late 90s Pirates. He gave the illusion of success because in his prime with Pittsburgh he would hit .290 and steal 20 bags a year. But he didn’t draw any walks, only hit 15 homers a year, and played a poor leftfield. Which all adds up to a pretty underwhelming player. But the Pirates kept running him out there because, well, what else were they going to do?
Graeme Lloyd – Relief Pitcher 11.4
1993-2003 533 IP, 30-36, 4.04 ERA, 304 K, 17 SV
The fourth Australian to play in the major leagues, and perhaps the best since his debut – the only three that clearly best him all came before. I’ll always remember him as the toss-in for the David Wells-Roger Clemens trade. At that point he had seven strong years under his belt, but after one more good season with the Jays he got hurt and never really recovered. I will also always remember his finely maintained beard, and never forgive the Yankees for making him shave it.
Brian Hunter – Centerfield 12.4
1994-2003 3659 PA, .264/.313/.346, 882 H, 25 HR, 260 SB
+27
The other Brian Hunter. This one stretched the limits of what it means to be a major league baseball player. In the batter’s box he was next to useless, but he was a good centerfielder and a great base-runner. He led the league twice in steals, and in 1997 stole 74 – only Jose Reyes with 78 in 2007 has topped that since. It’s a testament to how important hitting is that Hunter played with 6 teams in 10 years and was only a full-time player for four.
Kazuhiro Sasaki – Relief Pitcher 13.3
2000-2003 223 IP, 7-16, 3.14 ERA, 242 K, 129 SV
2000 Rookie of the Year, 2 All-Star Games
Fun trivia, what Japanese import to Seattle was the oldest player to win the Rookie of the Year award? Kazuhiro Sasaki! Who did it the year before Ichiro. [Though I see Sasaki was actually beaten by a few months by Sam Jethroe in 1950…for the purposes of this comment we’ll call it a draw]. Sasaki had three strong seasons as the Mariners closer in the familiar Japanese style…lots of strikeouts, and more walks than you’d care to see.
Troy O’Leary – Leftfield 13.5
1993-2003 4418 PA, .274/.332/.448, 1100 H, 127 HR
+3
A hero among Boston fans for his 2 HR, 7 RBI in game 5 of the 1999 ALDS against the Indians. The Red Sox have since surpassed such glories (helped in no small part by O’Leary’s replacement, Manny Ramirez), but Troy still deserves a page in the annals of Boston lore. He wasn’t a particularly good player, but one of those guys who just seems to exude likability and is impossible not to root for.
Kevin Young – First Base 15.8
1992-2003 4352 PA, .258/.324/.438, 1007 H, 144 HR, 83 SB
+38
In 1999 the Pirates looked to be on the verge of returning to relevance. At 78-83 they had their best record in years (it still stands as the highest they’ve soared since the fleet-footed Sid Bream sunk them in 1992). They had young super-star hitters in Jason Kendall and Brian Giles, and a hot prospect in Aramis Ramirez. They also had a promising rotation led by Jason Schmidt and Kris Benson. The Pirates also had a 30 year-old 1B fluking into a solid season in his second tour of the duty with the club after having been exiled to Kansas City a few years before. Amid all the optimism and excitement Young got a fat, long-term contract and promptly returned to his established level of poor play. For me, Kevin Young symbolizes the futility of the 1993-2011 Pirates. May the pennant-winning 2012 Pirates signal a new era in Pittsburgh!
Marty Cordova – Leftfield 16.2
1995-2003 3835 PA, .274/.344/.448, 938 H, 122 HR, 57 SB
1995 Rookie of the Year -25
While Cordova was one of many Rookie of the Year winners who went on to have a disappointing career, his selection was a deserved one. And against some strong competition too, Garret Anderson, Andy Pettitte, Shawn Green, Troy Percival, Brad Radke and Ray Durham all had strong cases to make (and all ended up being better players than Cordova).
Cordova was the best of the group in 1995, but how apparent was it at the time that he would go on to have the least productive career? Anderson (23), Pettitte (23), Green (22), Radke (22) and Durham (23) were all significantly younger than Cordova. Troy Percival, like Cordova, was 25 – closer to the average age for a rookie, but pretty old for a future star. Great players usually reach the majors before that age.
Cordova went on to have one of those inconsistent, batting average reliant careers. When the balls dropped in he was a useful player, but he didn’t do much else for the team. Hitting .300 he was a good guy to have, hitting .260 he was next to useless.
Dean Palmer – Third Base 19.3
1989-2003 5513 PA, .251/.324/.472, 1229 H, 275 HR, 48 SB
1 All-Star Game, 2 Silver Sluggers -96
I seem to recall Palmer setting some kind of minor league HR record, but perusing his stat-line now I see his minor league best was 25 in AA ball. Though he was a highly touted prospect, and power was his one main skill. He didn’t really do anything else particularly well however. Poor glove, poor average, middling walk-rate…it all adds up to a pretty uninspiring career. He was a less extreme version of Mark Reynolds, carrying out a career-long experiment to see how far you can get on hitting home runs alone.
Chad Kreuter – Catcher 20.4
1988-2003 2932 PA, .237/.335/.357, 593 H, 54 HR
36 CS%, +0
Kreuter was a career back-up catcher who had a monster season with the Tigers in 1993. For pure deviation from career norms it may be one of the all-time fluke seasons. In his late 30s he enjoyed slightly less dramatic success backing up Paul LoDuca in Los Angeles.
Steve Avery – Starting Pitcher 25.0
1990-2003 1554 IP, 96-83, 4.19 ERA, 980 K
1 All-Star Game
Briefly in 1993 the Braves had a big four in their rotation, not a big three. The youngest of the bunch was Steve Avery. From 1991 to 1993 (his age 21 to 23 seasons), Avery was arguably better than Smoltz (47-25, 3.17 ERA). But injuries soon struck and the next generation Braves ace fizzled out.
Orlando Merced – Rightfield 27.6
1990-2003 4532 PA, .277/.355/.426, 1108 H, 103 HR, 57 SB
+37
A spectacularly forgettable player. He wasn’t really good at any one aspect of the game, and neither were any of his faults particularly glaring. His was a general form of mediocrity. His skills were always hovering on the margin and by the time he turned 30 he had slipped into full-on terrible.
Dan Plesac – Relief Pitcher 28.5
1986-2003 1072 IP, 65-71, 3.64 ERA, 1041 K, 158 SV
3 All-Star Games
Plesac immediately became a top closer when he entered the league in 1986. In fact, he accumulated the majority of his value while with the Brewers from 1986-1992. He then spent his 30s and a bit of his 40s travelling around the country helping out bullpens in need, often doing a better job than the closer-designate. His two tours of duty with the Blue Jays were both rousing successes during times of otherwise dreadful bullpens. He finished out on top at the age of 41 with a 2.70 ERA effort with the Phillies.
John Burkett – Starting Pitcher 28.8
1987-2003 2648 IP, 166-136, 4.31 ERA, 1766 K
2 All-Star Games
Burkett’s finest years were in San Francisco where he was sort of an early version of Kirk Reuter. You’d watch him pitch and wonder how he didn’t allow 7 runs a game but he’d fairly reliably get the job done. He did hugely benefit from the team he had around him. From 1990-1993 he went 61-34 with an ERA firmly below league average. But he kept his teams in games which is all a strong offence needs. He had a late-career resurgence in Atlanta (this was back when the Braves had some sort of pixie dust that temporarily turned all veteran re-treads into stars…until the Cardinals stole it from them a couple years ago). His last start came in Game Six of the 2003 ALCS where in typical Burkett fashion he got pasted by the Yankees and hit the showers in the 4th…but the Red Sox won anyway.
Todd Hundley – Catcher 29.3
1990-2003 4305 PA, .234/.320/.443, 883 H, 202 HR
2 All-Star Game 25 CS%, -50
Hundley came from the Mickey Tettleton school of catching. He didn’t hit for much of an average, and wasn’t a particularly good catcher, but he could take a walk and had some serious power (by catcher standards). He had terrible timing though as when he finally put all the pieces together for the Mets, they acquired Mike Piazza. This led to an experiment that still lives in infamy among Met fans – Todd Hundley the outfielder. He played 34 of the worst defensive games ever witnessed by humankind in left in 1998, then was promptly shipped to the Dodgers where he had fleeting success before fizzling out. I do think he had it in him to be great, and from 1995-1997 he was a legit star, one of the best catchers in the game.
Joey Hamilton – Starting Pitcher 29.9
1994-2003 1340 IP, 74-73, 4.44 ERA, 894 K
Hamilton started out his career with a bang with an ERA around 3.00 after his first 300 innings. But he was one of those low-K guys with middling control…they rarely pan out. By 1998 he was leading the league in walks and looking like a thoroughly washed up prospect. But Hamilton made the World Series with the Padres that year, and the pitcher’s park he played in obscured his flaws and so the Jays eagerly swept him up for Woody Williams. Once he left San Diego he wasn’t much use to anyone.
Jesse Orosco – Relief Pitcher 34.4
1979-2003 1295 IP, 87-80, 3.16 ERA, 1179 K, 144 SV
2 All-Star Games
The Jamie Moyer of his era, Orosco pitched until he was 46. He was the last surviving member of the late 70s, early 80s version of the “relief ace” who would pitch 100+ innings a season and put out fires whenever they sprung up, not just for a couple batters in the 9th inning. He thrived in this role for the 1980s Mets and was a large part of their success in 1986. Afterwards he turned his hand to lefty specialist work well into old age (and long enough to hold the all-time record for games pitched). Even in his 40s he was striking out over a batter an inning.
Rick Reed – Starting Pitcher 34.4
1988-2003 1545 IP, 93-76, 4.03 ERA, 970 K
2 All-Star Games
Through his first nine years in the majors Rick Reed struggled to stay with several clubs, usually making three or four starts before failing miserably and moving on. But at the age of 32 he suddenly figured something out and had four stellar seasons with the Mets. He wasn’t a powerful pitcher – he mostly got by through his incredible stinginess with the walks (he led the AL in walk rate in 2002 with the Twins). He started the only game the Mets won in the 2000 Subway World Series.
Mike Bordick – Shortstop 36.9
1990-2003 6484 PA, .260/.323/.362, 1500 H, 91 HR, 96 SB
1All-StarGame +68
Bordick was never much of a hitter (though once he got out of the Coliseum in Oakland he did pop his share of home runs), but he was nevertheless a valuable player. Most of Bordick’s value came through his glove, his dependability, and his complete lack of a decline phase. His best offensive seasons (in order of quality) were at age 26, 34, 35, 37 and 36. And that’s even after adjusting for the higher offensive context in which he played his latter years. He also managed to step into the shoes of Cal Ripken at SS with the Orioles without missing a beat. In fact, the Baltimore shortstop club is some pretty nice company. From 1963-1967 Hall of Famer Luis Aparicio. From 1968-1981 Mark Belanger, who may be the best glove man of all time, and from 1982-1996 Cal Ripken. Bordick held down the job from 1997-2002 before another former Athletic, Miguel Tejada took over. An impressive franchise run at a position.
Denny Neagle – Starting Pitcher 39.7
1991-2003 1890 IP, 124-92, 4.24 ERA, 1415 K
2 All-Star Games
Neagle made his name with the Pirates, and like so many other pitchers of the 90s, had his best years with the Braves. He is probably most famous for having his contract with the Rockies voided for a run-in with a prostitute (though the fact that he was horrendously over-paid probably played a role too). But his great 1997 stands out as a spectacular season on his resume…even if it was the 4th best in his team’s rotation that year. The Braves had some good pitchers back then.
Comparing the 1997 Braves to the 2011 Phillies. (IP and ERA+)
Halladay – 233, 163 Smoltz – 256, 138
Lee – 232, 160 Glavine – 240, 141
Hamels – 216, 137 Neagle – 233, 140
Oswalt – 139, 104 Maddux – 232, 189
Worley – 131, 127
I think I’d take the Braves.
Mo Vaughn – First Base 43.0
1991-2003 6410 PA, .293/.383/.523, 1620 H, 328 HR
1995 MVP, 3 All-Star Games, 1 Silver Slugger -44
Vaughn was a bridge between the somewhat limited success of fat-guy Cecil Fielder, and the paragon of fat-guyness, David Ortiz. The better present-day comparison is probably Travis Hafner. Vaughn had more good years, but at their best Hafner was the better hitter. In the end I call it as a wash. His nickname (“Hit Dog”) also represents a rather painful transitory phase in baseball history. Like so many others, he is remembered for his disastrous time with the Mets where they paid him $46 million to play in 160 games (and this was at 2002-2004 prices!). But in Boston Vaughn was a great hitter and the anchor of the Red Sox lineup. Considering his physique it perhaps shouldn’t be a surprise that he did fall apart in his early 30s – a sobering thought for Prince Fielder and the Tigers. Though his successor in Boston has aged surprisingly well.
Charles Nagy – Starting Pitcher 43.5
1990-2003 1954 IP, 129-105, 4.51, 1242 K
3 All-Star Games
The mid-90s Indians are better remembered for their historically great offence, but Charles Nagy was their ever-stalwart, if not Hall of Fame calibre, ace. He pitched poorly in both the 1995 and 1997 World Series, but in both cases he played a crucial role in getting the Indians that far.
Greg Vaughn – Leftfield 45.5
1989-2003 7070 PA, .242/.337/.470, 1475 H, 355 HR, 121 SB
4 All-Star Games, 1 Silver Slugger +22
Aside from having 2/3 of my name, there are many reasons to like Greg Vaughn. In a way he was almost the perfect player for his time and place. Home runs were his great skill, and the mid-90s to early-00s were a great time to hit them. His 50 HRs for the Padres in 1998 is likely to remain the team record for a long time (or as long as they stay in PETCO). Doubles and Home Runs are interesting co-referential markers. Generally I think there’s a balance between the two. The ratio can tell you a bit about a hitter. What you might call a “gap-hitter” has around a 2:1 ratio. Derek Jeter has 504 doubles to 247 home runs, Mark Grace – an extreme version – has 511 doubles to 173 homers. Then you have guys like Gary Sheffield (467-509), Manny Ramirez (547-555) at a roughly 1:1 line. These are what you might call “complete hitters”. High average, high power.
Greg Vaughn falls into a group on the other end of the spectrum. He’s one of only three players since 1990 to have over 350 HRs and less than 300 doubles. If I tell you the other two are Adam Dunn and Mark McGwire I think it’ll give you a rough idea of the kind of hitter Greg Vaughn was.
Ron Gant – Leftfield 47.9
1987-2003 7320 PA, .256/.336/.458, 1651 H, 321 HR, 243 SB
2 All-Star Games, 1 Silver Slugger +13
Gant was a bit like BJ Upton as they were both 2B who arrived in the majors early with obvious talent, but were obviously out of place. 2B seems like a popular starting point for guys like this…Alfonso Soriano and Juan Samuel both spring to mind as well…(is it weird that no white guys are coming off the top of my head? Frank Catalanatto was similarly ill-suited to 2B early in his career, but his skill-set was quite different from these guys). Anyway, Gant soon found a home in the outfield…the more I think about it the more the Soriano comparison seems apt. Both had quality power, both could steal a bag…Gant was a bit more in control in the batters box (though I think everyone is a bit more in control than Alfonso Soriano), and Gant was a much better outfielder.
Jay Bell – Shortstop 51.1
1986-2003 8525 PA, .265/.343/.416, 1963 H, 195 HR, 91 SB
2 All-Star Games, 1 Gold Glove, 1 Silver Slugger -13
Bell made a name for himself when he came to Arizona late in his career and turned into a power hitter. In his first 11 years he hit 83 home runs, and in his last six he hit 112. But in fact his best years were as the SS and #2 hitter of the almost-but-not-quite early 90s Pirates. In his 20s he was very much a Yunel Escobar style player – good on-base skills and not much power but he could slap a double when he needed to. Also like Escobar he was a popular choice as a #2 hitter as he had great bat control, but not the speed you’d like to see out of a lead-off man. Perhaps he took to the job with a bit too much enthusiasm as he laid down 69 sacrifice bunts in 1990-1991, leading all of baseball in both years. I’m all for helping out your team-mates but that’s a hell of a lot of outs to be giving up in front of Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla and Andy Van Slyke.
Mark Grace – First Base 54.7
1988-2003 9290 PA, .303/.383/.442, 2445 H, 173 HR, 70 SB
3 All-Star Games, 4 Gold Gloves +76
Grace was a throw-back to an older style of 1B, before the position became the haunt of sluggers in the early 20th century. He didn’t have much power (he never hit 20 HR despite playing in one of the highest offensive contexts in history), but he had tremendous on-base skills and excelled in the field. I suppose his type has always existed, but they are an endangered species. See the career of Casey Kotchman for how 1B like that usually turn out. Grace was probably the best in that style over the past twenty years, depending on how you classify John Olerud. At his best in the post-season, particularly with Arizona in 2001.
Matt Williams – Third Base 59.6
1987-2003 7595 PA, .268/.317/.489, 1878 H, 378 HR, 53 SB
5 All-Star Games, 4 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers +90
I thought I’d compare Williams with Scott Rolen as they are two fairly similar players, but one I consider an easy Hall of Famer and the other is good, but comfortably on the outside looking in. They’re both good hitting, good fielding 3B…so what makes Rolen so much better?
To start off, the similarities. Both players started their major league career at 21 and finished at (or are currently playing at) the age of 37. Rolen has a plate appearance advantage of 8289 to 7595 (roughly a full season worth of play) mostly due to the fact that he became a starting player sooner and has been more durable than Williams. Both won multiple Gold Gloves, though Rolen has 8 to Williams’ 4. Williams won all of his NL Gold Gloves before Rolen became a regular. In Williams’ one year in the AL (1997) the two men shared the 3B honours for both leagues. Both were strong hitters, though Williams hit for more power.
Williams actually got more hits per PA (.247) than Rolen (.243)
He certainly hit home runs more often (.049) to Rolen’s (.037)
Add to that the fact that Rolen played in a slightly higher offensive context than Williams and you could argue Williams was comfortably ahead of Rolen as a hitter (depending on your definition of “hitter”).
Of course if we stop there we come to the conclusion that Williams was better than Rolen, so onward we go!
Defence is a tricky business, but since Rolen’s Hall of Fame case rests on his reputation as one of the finest fielding 3B of all time we’ll have to wade into the murky world of defensive ratings.
Baseball-Reference has Rolen at 175 (historically great) runs above average in his career and Williams at 90 (very good). Fangraphs.com has the gap slightly smaller at 161 to 90. Essentially Rolen won his teams 7-8 more games than Williams did with the glove. A fairly large gap considering Williams was no slouch himself, and probably enough to close the power deficit for Rolen.
But one last area pushes Rolen far ahead of Williams and into Hall of Fame territory. Using hits per PA rather than batting average above was a way of craftily hiding Rolen’s big advantage over Williams – walks. Despite getting fewer hits per PA, Rolen actually beats Williams pretty handily in batting average because of all his non-AB walks. The finally tally is 876 to 469 in favour of Rolen. Rolen also has a 506-338 edge in doubles. That’s a 575 base advantage for Rolen unaccounted for when just looking at hits and home runs.
All of which is a long way of saying that what makes Rolen a Hall of Famer and Matt Williams a Hall of Very Gooder are 3B defence, walks, and doubles. Unfortunately those are three things Hall of Fame voters have been pretty poor at recognizing historically. So perhaps Rolen won’t get the easy walk to Cooperstown he deserves.
But enough about Rolen, Matt Williams was a pretty great player in his own right. Williams played in the World Series for three separate teams (1993 Giants, 1997 Indians, and 2001 D-Backs). Another thing to consider in an assessment of his career is that his two best seasons unfortunately coincided with the 1994-1995 strike. He was one of many players in 1994 that appeared poised to break records and he finished the shortened season with 43 HRs in 112 games. His combined 1994-1995 lines, shrunk from 188 games to 162 games, give him 66 HRs. He still had quite a hill to climb to break Maris’ record, but it was possible.
David Cone – Starting Pitcher 78.6
1986-2003 2898 IP, 194-126, 3.46 ERA, 2668 K
1994 Cy Young, 5 All-Star Games
Cone had a storied career winning five World Series and just missing out on two others. He came up with the Royals in 1986 one year after their Championship, then got shipped to the Mets in 1987, one year after their championship. It’s hard to get a conceptual grasp on Cone’s career (which may hurt his Hall of Fame chances). He certainly made an impression in his Yankee years, he was great in 1996, 1998, and 1999 – arguably the Yankees best pitcher in those last two years, and also pitched a perfect game. But lost amidst his constant team changes in the early 90s were some great years with the Mets (where he led the NL in strikeouts twice), Royals (where he won a Cy Young) and Blue Jays (where he won his first World Series).
Rickey Henderson – Leftfield 121.9
1979-2003 13346 PA, .279/.401/.419, 3055 H, 297 HR, 1406 SB
1990 MVP, 10 All-Star Games, 1 Gold Glove, 3 Silver Sluggers +65
Bill James famously said if you divided Rickey Henderson into two players they’d both make the Hall of Fame. I suppose it would be more efficient to list his flaws…he had good, rather than great power, and while he was a very good fielder, his arm wasn’t strong enough for center. Other than that he was just about perfect. Being the greatest base-stealer of all time certainly makes for a good lead-off man, (he led the league in steals every year of the 80s, but for 1987) but he was also drawing 100+ walks a season.
Even beyond his actual skills he was just a super-fun player to follow. Along with steals and runs, he may hold the all-time record for most amusing anecdotes. Somehow managed to make talking about himself the in the third person and publicly proclaiming himself “the Greatest” endearing. Most likely this is a retrospective thing as the way he ended his career just made him impossible to dislike. Undaunted by the lack of MLB offers he continued playing in the independent leagues for three years after this – I think he was always motivated by confidence and love of the game rather than vanity.
2004 Ballot – Cumulative Vote (2004 Votes)
Willie Davis – 98 (7)
Keith Hernandez – 88 (6)
Larry Doby – 85 (4)
Graig Nettles – 80 (3)
Pee Wee Reese – 79 (1)
Wade Boggs – 78 (16)
Ozzie Smith – 73 (9)
Juan Marichal – 70 (4)
Nolan Ryan – 68 (6)
Cesar Cedeno – 64 (6)
Hal Newhouser – 60 (3)
Bill Freehan – 58 (3)
Cal Ripken – 54 (18)
Ted Simmons – 53 (4)
Alan Trammell – 49 (6)
Ryne Sandberg – 43 (6)
Lou Whitaker – 43 (5)
Paul Molitor – 39 (7)
Buddy Bell – 37 (1)
Eddie Murray – 36 (4)
Mark McGwire – 27 (9)
Willie Randolph – 24 (1)
Eddie Cicotte – 23 (1)
Tim Raines – 22 (10)
Red Faber – 20 (2)
Chet Lemon – 17 (3)
Andre Dawson – 17 (3)
Rickey Henderson – 16 (16)
Tony Gwynn – 10 (5)
Reggie Smith – 10 (1)
Will Clark – 6 (1)
Rick Reuschel – 6 (1)
Kirby Puckett – 5 (1)
Bret Saberhagen – 4 (1)
Gene Tenace – 4 (1)
2004 Inductees
Reggie Jackson (1967-1987) – famous for his World Series HRs and trying to assassinate the Queen.
For the curious, the Hall of Famers so far
Catchers
Johnny Bench
Gary Carter
Carlton Fisk
Yogi Berra
Bill Dickey
Mickey Cochrane
Thurman Munson
Gabby Hartnett
Joe Torre
Ernie Lombardi
Roger Bresnahan
First Base
Lou Gehrig
Jimmie Foxx
Johnny Mize
Dick Allen
Hank Greenberg
Willie McCovey
George Sisler
Bill Terry
Frank Chance
Second Base
Rogers Hornsby
Eddie Collins
Nap Lajoie
Joe Morgan
Charlie Gehringer
Jackie Robinson
Frankie Frisch
Bobby Grich
Joe Gordon
Rod Carew
Third Base
Mike Schmidt
Eddie Mathews
George Brett
Ron Santo
Brooks Robinson
Home Run Baker
Ken Boyer
John McGraw
Jimmy Collins
Stan Hack
Shortstop
Honus Wagner
Arky Vaughan
George Davis
Robin Yount
Ernie Banks
Lou Boudreau
Luke Appling
Bill Dahlen
Joe Cronin
Leftfield
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Carl Yastrzemski
Pete Rose
Al Simmons
Goose Goslin
Billy Williams
Fred Clarke
Ralph Kiner
Joe Medwick
Sherry Magee
Centerfield
Willie Mays
Ty Cobb
Tris Speaker
Mickey Mantle
Joe DiMaggio
Duke Snider
Richie Ashburn
Jimmy Wynn
Earl Averill
Max Carey
Rightfield
Babe Ruth
Hank Aaron
Mel Ott
Frank Robinson
Roberto Clemente
Al Kaline
Joe Jackson
Harry Heilmann
Paul Waner
Sam Crawford
Pitchers
Cy Young
Walter Johnson
Kid Nichols
Pete Alexander
Lefty Grove
Tom Seaver
Christy Mathewson
Phil Niekro
Bob Gibson
Bert Blyleven
Gaylord Perry
Warren Spahn
Amos Rusie
Steve Carlton
Robin Roberts
Ed Walsh
Eddie Plank
Ferguson Jenkins
Dazzy Vance
Rube Waddell
Joe McGinnity
Vic Willis
Carl Hubbell
Stan Coveleski
Bob Feller
Sandy Koufax
The Tony Batista Apology Tour 